Crystal ball · the outlook
The order it arrives in is the argument.
Capabilities arrive on dates. Outcomes accumulate. Walk the year forward to see the world you are planning for, drag anything you disagree with, and take the position with you.
Your exposure
12 of them have no validated lab position behind them.
In 2027: 0 arrived · 12 underway · 14 still ahead
38 of 40 lab fields stand behind this outlook · 12 of 26 arguments have nothing published behind them · 2 fields the outlook has never accounted for
Work we can delegate
2028–2032 · Contested · reach 7
When systems can remember, plan and act reliably, the unit of automation expands from a task to a workflow. Human work shifts towards objectives, exceptions and accountability.
The strongest countercase
Supervision, messy inputs and organisational resistance could absorb the apparent savings. Capable agents do not automatically create autonomous organisations.
What could go wrong, and who decides
Misuse, cascading errors and loss of control become more consequential as permissions and autonomy expand.
How it connects
6 things have to happen first · 3 follow from it.
Keep your view moving
Three questions worth coming back to.
From a view to a decision
Take a position. Keep the receipts.
Save your timing, your reasoning and what would change your mind, or take a dated, sourced brief into the next planning conversation.
An interactive outlook prototype. Research links are real; windows, connections, breakthrough statuses and readings of other people's scenarios are ours and are illustrative. Personal outlooks stay in this browser — no live monitoring is connected.